The Potential Ramifications to People's Morale and Sense of Purpose Caused by Artificial Intelligence’s Implementation within American Society
A eariler version of this paper was used for a submittion at Bentley University
Introduction
A Dartmouth professor, John McCarthy, theorized and coined the concept of artificial intelligence more than six decades ago in 1955, “author(ing) a proposal for a two-month, 10-person summer research conference on artificial intelligence. (Stating that) the study is to proceed on the basis of the conjecture that every aspect of learning or any other feature of intelligence can in principle be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it.” (Myers) Here he provided the world with a relatively straightforward definition for artificial intelligence; Programs of common sense. He uses this as the title of a paper he authored in 1960 and describes the system, that would be capable of human intelligence. (Myers) Today the definition of artificial intelligence is slightly different being, “the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment.” (Britannica)
While Professor McCarthy’s dream was never achieved during his life, today, we have never been closer. That being said, people have been saying that A.I. is right around the corner for decades. For generations, shows and movies have discussed the idea of AI’s implementation. While some of these are dystopian, most people think about AI with wondering bemusement. In comparison, some people have explored the negative ramifications of creating and utilizing AI; most of these center around a loss of freedom and rights. This paper will discuss the ramifications of artificial intelligence on people’s ability to work and how this could affect humans’ purpose.
Additionally, it will explore many ideas beginning with general ideas and topics that have brought us to this point. Then discuss the timeline, both past and potential future. I will then get into the meat of the paper in which the implications of this are discussed. This includes but is not limited to: how humans will compete with AI, how does this affects an individual's sense of purpose, whether or not this will potentially lead to societal decay, and ideas such as why we work, and what our identity is. In essence, I will be discussing the implications of artificial intelligence's ramifications. As we are propelled towards a future where AI is extensively integrated within our lives, we must be aware of the effects, including a potential loss of purpose and identity, which could lead to societal decay.
Implementation of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence could end up being a tremendous societal good. It can allow humankind to make better decisions that improve life by increasing the speed and accuracy of our current decision-making processes. That being said, everything comes at a cost. Even if you create the greatest thing ever that has no foreseeable unintended consequences for anyone, there will still be unexplainable negative consequences caused by the said thing. Therefore, it is imperative to discuss and look at new technology and its potential implications on society. This paper by no means is arguing that we should stop artificial intelligence development or that we should not implement artificial intelligence; it is merely discussing the fact that we should not be so intent on running towards a potential AI future. As we are propelled towards a future where AI is extensively integrated within our lives, we must be aware of the effects, including a potential loss of purpose and identity, which could lead to societal decay.
While AI has a colloquial definition, as explained above, there are different levels of AI. For example, Alan Turing created the Turing Test, which hypothesized that artificial intelligence would be a reality when a person cannot tell whether they are communicating with a human or a machine. (Kile) Today AI is measured on a scale of 1 to 5. Level zero is zero automation. Level one is simple augmentation, i.e., a computer’s ability to have data entered to process data and identify and profile said data. Level two is supervised artificial intelligence. A computer can run and control routine systems such as an energy network and refers decisions to a human. Level three is the next level to be created, and this will be semi-autonomous computers. I.e., self-driving cars, etc., level four is full automation, where public service would run itself unless in an extreme case in which human intervention would be required. Level five is a fully autonomous system that never requires human interaction. We are currently closed to developing level three AI. (Choksey)
The timeline for the development of AI is an ongoing and contentious conversation. Many people make outlandish claims, and there is no general agreement amongst experts on when exactly it can be expected. A significant part of this is that we are close, and someone can come along tomorrow and successfully program AI. This can partially be explained away by the fact that things often move very slowly and then all at once in scientific discovery. This is usually due to a great mind like Isaac Newton or Einstein coming along and shaking the entire system. This being said, there is a wide gap in when AI is expected. For example, Michael Osborne, an Oxford professor, says that by the year 2035, AI will replace 47% of all jobs. (Torres) This is obviously a very bullish outlook on AI development. Others, such as Eliza Kosoy, a researcher at MIT center for brains, minds, and machines, states that “AI will never outsmart us.” (Blais). However, this is a bit of a semantic argument as she says that AI will never outsmart us due to its inability to empathize with humans. She does, however, concede that AI is surpassing human’s ability in places. The closest thing to consensus there is the idea that experts believe that there is a 50% chance that level 5 AI occurs within 50 years and a 10% chance that level 5 AI occurs within 10 years. (Blais) Yet other, “Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.” (Evans)
That being said, experts have been saying AI is 50 years away for 45 years. (Smith) Researchers currently predict we will have level three AI by 2025, and industry experts unanimously believe we will have it by 2030. (Choksey) It would seem fair to say that level three AI is imminent, and we will develop more advanced AI at some point down the road.
Economic Implications
This bears to question what does this mean for everyday people? Specifically, how will this affect the daily lives of everyday working Americans? With the advent of automation, a steady stream of less-skilled jobs disappeared. Machine-aided thinking will continue to decrease employment opportunities for lower-skilled workers, and AI will greatly affect unemployment. (Kile) One of the first and most prominent places this will take hold is the trucking industry. At a time when ordinary workers are already growing more and more isolated from the prosperous workers in places like Silicon Valley, the Teamsters (truckers) will be greatly reduced, if not obliterated by autonomous vehicles. These 1.8 million Americans could all be fired as it is estimated that switching to fully autonomous trucking allows trucking companies to save $125 billion. (Rich) This will not just make the rat race regular employees have to go through more difficult it will eliminate their jobs. As artificial intelligence begins to take hold, companies will restructure and downsize specific departments to reduce expenses. People will have to sit and watch as technology assumes the working duties of many employees. (Sleek)
While this is a bleak picture, AI will not be able to envelop all jobs. Especially not initially. Upper management and white-collar work will mostly remain intact. Studies have shown that the first jobs to be overtaken by AI will most likely be jobs that include repetition and or low cognitive labor tasks. Occupations characterized by nonroutine with high interpersonal activity and high cognitive labor tasks are least at risk for automation.
Research shows that transition away from at-risk jobs will be possible. For example, sheet-metal trades workers are at high risk of being automated but are highly similar to industrial designers, which are considered low risk in terms of being automated. Therefore an industrial designer position presents a realistic transition opportunity for a sheet-metal trade worker. (Dawson) While this created a somewhat optimistic view, research has shown that a potential 20% additional unemployment rate could occur. So even though AI will not initially dominate jobs such as software developers, data engineers, sales positions, doctors, nurses, and teachers, it will cause significant disruption in the workforce. (Dawson)
The Problems of Unemployment
Unemployment is a severe problem as it causes major societal and political problems. It becomes crucial in economies and is correlative to inequality and poverty. If AI were to replace 47% of jobs in the United States economy, this would be a major problem. While AI-related innovation would likely complement some of these jobs, it is not expected to create anywhere near the number of jobs that would be lost. (İşcan)
This would come at a major societal cost; and not just a financial one. The morale of the country would be tremendously damaged. Unemployment leads individuals to face a loss of income and increased challenges in their daily lives. In terms of a broad overview, crime rates would rise, and volunteerism would decrease. Further, the country’s GDP will go down, resulting in a loss of governmental ability to spend, meaning reductions in terms of benefits and the loss of worker protections. Overall life expectancy drops, drug use, the rate of single motherhood, and poverty all go up while education rates, access to public transportation, and mental health go down. (Belle) On an individual level, the phenomenon of unemployment is represented by the quote, “you don’t live when you are unemployed – you exist.”
In addition to families facing financial hardship and poverty, personal debt increases, as does the risk of homelessness. (McClelland) This causes increased stress, particularly on laid-off men who feel responsible for supporting their wives, children, and relatives. They often experience illness-related symptoms partially due to elevated cholesterol levels. The root cause of this can be summed up by Gore’s study, which concludes that these men blame themselves for their unemployment and the poor condition of their families. (Belle) As tension grows, families break down, and boredom, alienation, shame, stigma, social isolation, low confidence and self-esteem, domestic violence, and illness all increase. These conditions create an untenable situation that negatively impacts children and anyone else with any degree of contact. Perhaps most devastating, it creates the feeling of hopelessness that only perpetuates the problem and makes it more permanent. (McClelland) Without even mentioning the massive social division AI would initiate by perpetuating said circumstances, this is the case.
Human ingenuity, creativity, and potential regulation will allow humans to compete temporarily; however, an additional 20% unemployment rate would be disastrous. Once the genie is out of the bottle, there is no putting it back in.
The Problems of a Loss of Purpose
Philosophers have long opined on the idea of what is humanity’s purpose. What is a person’s purpose? Depending on whom you ask, you get a different answer; the general idea is that there is some aim or motivation in your life. The reason you get up in the morning and do what you do. This purpose guides your behaviors, influences your decisions, and shapes the goals you seek to achieve. For many people, meaningful and satisfying work is their purpose. If AI replaces many people’s jobs, their life’s purpose will be destroyed. For many people, the primary social interaction they get is work. They communicate with their colleagues by hanging out after work and talking during work at the watering cooler. If their jobs are automated away, this time with no longer exist and may not be replaced.
Further, people must be healthy. For this to be the case, we need to exercise regularly. Social scientists determined that most people regularly exercise as part of their jobs, and for many, this is their primary form of exercise. (Friedman) Were their jobs to be replaced, it is doubtful that these people would all become gym rats and maintain their cardiovascular health.
Moreover, a lack of exercise leads to a cascading effect resulting in decreased concentration, increased stress, a harder time learning and remembering things, and reduced stamina. Exercise also improves people’s moods, and happiness. (Friedman)
America is also growing increasingly divided, which only furthers the importance of work. People agree on less and less, or at least it seems, and work is one of the last places where people of all different walks of life, political persuasions, etc., come together and work towards a common goal. Work is extremely important to society, and if the unemployment rate were to rise drastically, an untold amount of damage would be done to this country. (Rainie)
Further, work constitutes the new church. The workplace has clearly become far more than just a place where people go to work. Work functions as a social hub for employees. People engage with their community through work, and many people consider their work to be their community. (Lauritsen) While this can be good, playing an essential role in an individual’s life, if there is a drastic increase in unemployment, people will be hit even harder given the reliance on their workspace.
Only Some Will be Replaced
Up to this point, a pretty bleak future has been painted, and some may question how realistic it is. It is a fair question to ask whether AI will ever be fully developed, and even if it is, whether it will have the effect described above. You could, in fact, say that even when AI is created, it will mostly only replace unskilled laborers. If it only replaces low-level jobs, this can be managed and is not too bad.
Rebuke 1
This, however, would be flawed thinking. Even if AI is stalled – and that would be a big if, in certain senses, it is already here – it will eventually be developed. It will automate away jobs, and even if the crocodile eats you last, you will still be eaten.
Additionally, once developed, it may be necessary to implement AI in order to stay competitive. As a society, we are currently the world’s sole superpower, and we have international interests. These interests benefit the people, and in order to retain some benefits, we may be forced to deploy artificial intelligence.
Alternatively, it may necessitate integrating technology into the working class. (Dawson) In this scenario, it may not be a choice and would necessitate countless societal issues and worsen the class divide as we would create artificial physical differences between people, be it through human-machine integration. Either way, it seems inevitable that level five artificial intelligence will at some point be created, and it will radically affect us. Then, how will we choose to react, and what can we do to preserve our society.
Why Some Will Want to Work
This brings up an important question: why do we even work. Throughout history, many have surmised why we work. Adam Smith, for example, says we work for stuff. He argued that people are fundamentally lazy and that people work when a good deal is presented to them in order to secure stuff to live their lives. (Smith) Another argument was made by Karl Marx when he stated that people work for other people as a means of survival. (Dawson) This, however, was a different time than we are currently living in, and now resources are significantly more plentiful, and it is significantly easier to survive. Therefore, the necessity to work is not as much of a necessity. Currently, some people go to work every day and hate it. They are there for a paycheck and have no genuine interest in their job. Barry Schwartz says some people work for more than just money. (Schwartz) They are fully invested and are working for much more than a paycheck. People are doing this because it brings them purpose. This concept is called job crafting. Schwartz argues that job crafting creates an incentive that is an alternative to monetary compensation, allowing for increased satisfaction and productivity. (Sheffet)
Nevertheless, if people do not want to work, why is it a problem that AI takes their job? The problem for people is that their sense of purpose and identity are connected to their job. The established sense of purpose and identity is critical, and if AI were to take this away from people, it would lead to societal decay. (Anderson) Traditionally this would not have been a massive problem. Societal purpose used to be derived from many different places. The problem is, in the recent past, the traditional pillars in our society have been felled and are crumbling.
Traditionally people derived purpose and meaning from merely surviving. However, this has never been easier. People used to derive significant purpose from reproduction. You could argue that our whole purpose as a race is to reproduce; however, birth rates have fallen significantly in recent years. (PBR.org) Many people historically have also derived purpose from G-d. However, as time goes on, the United States has become less and less religious, as seen by our attendance rates at religious institutions. (Jones) Another central pillar in our society has always been the family unit. However, this too has decreased significantly, as shown by plummeting marriage rates. (Chamie) People derive significant meaning from work. Research shows that people mostly derive meaning from family and religion. (Silver) However, this number has been dropping, and these pillars of society are ailing. The third-place people derive purpose in their life is their career. (Pew Research) As family and religion become less prevalent, people will continue to turn to work to derive purpose in their lives.
People engage with people of all shapes, sizes, colors, and creeds at work. Further, people are invested in their work, and most people derive purpose from work. Given that “80% of Americans Agree ‘Work Is Its Own Reward’” implementing AI that replaces people’s jobs would cause a loss of purpose. (Ekins) Thus, as long as there remains a question of; where society turns in order to derive purpose, it may be fair to say people may still want to work.
AI Will Improve and Make People’s Lives Easier
AI may make people’s lives more plentiful. It may well maximize crop yields and result in ending world hunger. (Caine) It could cure societal ales and create the peak of prosperity. It could make human life significantly better.
Rebuttal 2
As human lives become easier and easier and ever more prosperous, they may lose purpose, potentially resulting in a worst societal outcome. The Matrix brought up an interesting point about humans: "If everything is a matter of want but not need, then it's boring. If nothing really serves a need, people get bored. Introduce those limits to overcome, those challenges, and they come together not just for want, but for necessity." (Au)
This is not the case with just humans either. John B. Calhoun demonstrated this in a series of studies termed the Rat Utopia. "In the experiments, Calhoun and his researchers created a series of "rat utopias" – enclosed spaces in which rats were given unlimited access to food and water, enabling unfettered population growth." (Wikipedia) He observed what he termed "behavioral sink." This is a phenomenon where perfect conditions lead to mass overcrowding, leading to a collapse. Jonathan Freedman furthered this research and developed a theory of coping strategies. This essentially said that creativity, spiritual spaces, and art could stave off these effects. (Fessenden)
Conclusion
This phenomenon and the idea brought up in the Matrix demonstrate the paradox of work. “The paradox of work is that many people hate their jobs, but they are considerably more miserable doing nothing.” (Thompson)
It may be the case that you should never look a gift horse in the mouth but let us not pretend as though there are not going to be any consequences. Even though this essay is making the case that maybe we should not be so intent on running towards the AI future, I would not bet against us. People are extraordinarily resilient, and as President John F. Kennedy said, “If men have the talent to invent new machines that put men out of work, they have the talent to put those men back to work.” “This statement, six decades old, has never been more accurate.” (Siminoff) I am not attempting to dissuade people from seeking artificial intelligence; I am merely stating: proceed with caution. “As jobs disappear, we face new challenges and require new skills to invent new jobs to replace the outdated ones.” (Siminoff)
Citations
"'War: How Conflict Shaped Us,' by Margaret MacMillan: An Excerpt." Review of The Unwomanly Face of War, by Svetlana Alexievich. New York Times, 6 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/06/books/review/war-how-conflict-shaped-us-by-margaret-macmillan-an-excerpt.html.
"Behavioral Sink." Wikipedia. Wikipedia, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink.
"Where Americans Find Meaning in Life." pewresearch.org, Pew Research Center, 20 Nov. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/religion/2018/11/20/where-americans-find-meaning-in-life/.
"Why Is the U.S. Birth Rate Declining?" prb.org, Population Reference Bureau, 6 May 2021, www.prb.org/resources/why-is-the-u-s-birth-rate-declining/.
Anderson, Janna, et al. Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humans. Pew Research Center, 10 Dec. 2018. pewresearch.org, www.pewresearch.org/internet/2018/12/10/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-humans/.
Au, Wagner James. "Humans Want Struggle, Not Perfection: What The Matrix's Agent Smith Teaches Us About Creating Successful Virtual Worlds." Review of The Matrix, 1999. nwn.blogs.com, New World Notes, 15 Nov. 2018, nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2018/11/matrix-virtual-world-metaverse-agent-smith.html.
Belle, Deborah, et al. "SPSSI Policy Statement: The Psychological Consequences of Unemployment." spssi.org, Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues, 1 Jan. 2010, www.spssi.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=page.viewpage&pageid=1457.
Blais, Carolyn. “When Will AI Be Smart Enough to Outsmart People.” Mit Engineering, MIT School of Engineering, 2018, https://engineering.mit.edu/engage/ask-an-engineer/when-will-ai-be-smart-enough-to-outsmart-people/#:~:text=In%20a%20paper%20published%20last,of%20occurring%20within%209%20years.
Chamie, Joseph. "The End of Marriage in America?" thehill.com, edited by Bob Cusack, The Hill, 10 Aug. 2021, thehill.com/opinion/finance/567107-the-end-of-marriage-in-america/.
Choksey, J. and Wardlaw, C., 2021. Levels of Autonomous Driving, Explained. J.D. Power. https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/levels-of-autonomous-driving-explained Accessed 7 April 2022.
Collins, Lois M. "The Apollo 11 moon landing brought a fractured America together. Could that happen again today?" deseret.com, Deseret News, 11 July 2019, www.deseret.com/2019/7/11/8936223/the-apollo-11-moon-landing-brought-a-fractured-america-together-could-that-happen-again-today.
Dawson, Nikolas, Williams M-A, Rizoiu M-A (2021) Skill-Driven Recommendations for Job Transition Pathways. PLoS ONE 16(8): e0254722. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254722
Devlin, Kat, et al. "People in Advanced Economies Say Their Society Is More Divided Than Before Pandemic." pewresearch.org, Pew Research Center, 23 June 2021, www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/06/23/people-in-advanced-economies-say-their-society-is-more-divided-than-before-pandemic/.
Ekins, Emily. "What Americans Think about Poverty, Wealth, and Work." cato.org, Cato Institute, 24 Sept. 2019, www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/what-americans-think-about-poverty-wealth-work#attitudes-about-work-savings-achievement.
Evans, Owain, et al. "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts." Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2018, p. 5, arXiv.1705.08807.
Fessenden, Marissa. "How 1960s Mouse Utopias Led to Grim Predictions for Future of Humanity." smithsonianmag.com, Smithsonian Institution, 26 Feb. 2015, www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/.
Friedman, Ron. "Regular Exercise Is Part of Your Job." Harvard Buisness Review, 3 Oct. 2014, hbr.org/2014/10/regular-exercise-is-part-of-your-job.
Gibson, Nigel. "Karl Marx at 200: Why the Workers' Way of Knowing Still Matters." theconversation.com, edited by Stacy Morford, The Conversation, 4 May 2018, theconversation.com/karl-marx-at-200-why-the-workers-way-of-knowing-still-matters-96025.
Great Work Cultures, and Jason Lauritsen. "Is Work the New Church?" HuffPost.com, HuffPost Contributor Platform, 24 July 2017, www.huffpost.com/entry/is-work-the-new-church_b_5975ab10e4b0545a5c310174.
History.com Editors, editor. "Civil War." History.com, A&E Television Networks, www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/american-civil-war-history.
İşcan, E. "An Old Problem in the New Era: Effects of Artificial Intelligence to Unemployment on the Way to Industry 5.0" . Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 16 (2021 ): 77-94 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/jyasar/issue/60163/781167> https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.781167
Jones, Jeffrey M. "U.S. Church Membership Falls Below Majority for First Time." news.gallup.com, Gallup, 29 Mar. 2021, news.gallup.com/poll/341963/church-membership-falls-below-majority-first-time.aspx.
Kile, F. Artificial intelligence and society: a furtive transformation. AI & Soc 28, 107–115 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-012-0396-0
McClelland, Alison, et al. "The Social Consequences of Unemployment." library.bsl.org.au, edited by Australian Taxation Office, Brotherhood of St. Laurence, library.bsl.org.au/jspui/bitstream/1/266/1/social_consequences_of_unemployment_AMcClelland.pdf.
Myers, A., 2011. Stanford's John McCarthy, seminal figure of artificial intelligence, dies at 84. Stanford University. https://news.stanford.edu/news/2011/october/john-mccarthy-obit-102511.html Accessed 7 April 2022.
PWC. “PWC Botme Booklet - PWC: Audit and Assurance, Consulting ...” Bot.Me: A Revolutionary Partnership, PWC, 2017, https://www.pwc.com/it/it/publications/assets/docs/PwC_botme-booklet.pdf.
Rainie, Lee, et al. "Trust and Distrust in America." pewresearch.org, Pew Research Center, 22 July 2019, www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/07/22/trust-and-distrust-in-america/.
Rich, Mari. "Andrew Yang." Current Biography, by H.W. Wilson Company, vol. 11, Canada, Grey House Publishing, 2019, pp. 560-63. 80 vols.
Schwartz, Barry. Why We Work. New York City, TED Books, Simon & Schuster, 2015.
Sheffet, David. Schwartz’s Additions to the Discussion of Why We Work.
Silver, Laura, et al. "What Makes Life Meaningful? Views From 17 Advanced Economies." pewresearch.org, Pew Research Center, 18 Nov. 2021, www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/11/18/what-makes-life-meaningful-views-from-17-advanced-economies/.
Siminoff, Alex. "The Future Of Work." alexsiminoff.com, Alex Siminoff, www.alexsiminoff.com/writing/the-future-of-work.
Sleek, Scott. “RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINES.” APS Observer, vol. 34, no. 4, 21 July 2021, pp. 44–47., psychologicalscience.org/observer/july-aug21.
Smith, Chris, et al. "The History of Artificial Intelligence." washington.edu, edited by University of Washington, U of Washington, Dec. 2006, courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/projects/history-ai.pdf. Accessed 7 Apr. 2022.
Smith, Adam. The Wealth of Nations. Oxford, England: Bibliomania.com Ltd, 2002. Web. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, <lccn.loc.gov/2002564559>.
Thompson, Derek. "A World Without Work." The Atlantic, July-Aug. 2015. theatlantic.com, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/world-without-work/395294/.
Torres, Timothy. Robots Could Replace Half Of All Jobs In 20 Years, 24 Mar. 2015. Tech Times. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/41932/20150324/robots-replace-half-jobs-20-years.html
World Economic Forum, and Mark Caine. "How AI Could Feed The World's Hungry While Sustaining The Planet." forbes.com, Forbes Media, 23 Sept. 2020, www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2020/09/23/how-ai-could-feed-the-worlds-hungry-while-sustaining-the-planet/?sh=7a3b5b433328.